Last Thursday morning I stepped out of my hotel and set out for
a café four minutes away. Within two minutes I realised my wet hair had
already frozen. I was in Ottawa, Canada’s capital, to speak at an event
about China. Even as a winter freeze gripped the city, many of its
politicians, bureaucrats and scholars had a thawing relationship on
their minds.
As a Canadian born in China, I’ve long been interested in relations between the two countries (though,
as I write in this week’s issue,
the last time anyone else cared was in 1970, when Canada
risked American objections and recognised the People’s Republic). The
bilateral relationship takes on many forms. There is, for example, the
friendship between one of Canada’s richest families, the Desmarais
dynasty, and President Xi Jinping’s former political rival, Bo Xilai.
And then there are the amusing Chinese nicknames for our former prime
ministers, Pierre Trudeau and Justin Trudeau: Big Potato and Little
Potato (“Trudeau” sounds like tudou).
Canada’s relationship with China under Justin Trudeau can be
summed up by the title of his girlfriend Katy Perry’s hit song: “Hot N
Cold”. It started with ambition and optimism. Then, in 2018, Canada
arrested Meng Wanzhou, a Huawei executive, on behalf of America. In
apparent retaliation China detained two Canadians, Michael Spavor and
Michael Kovrig. All three were freed in 2021, but the relationship
remained on ice.
Now, the mood has lifted. This was evident in October when Mark
Carney, who was elected as Canada’s prime minister in March, shook
hands with Mr Xi in South Korea. Both sides described the moment as a
“turning point”.
The recalibration is happening for two main reasons. The first
is President Donald Trump, who has eroded Canada’s trust in America with
his tariffs and taunts about making Canada America’s 51st state. The
second is Canada’s new leader. Mr Carney did not inherit the baggage
from 2018 and China sees this is a convenient time to reset. Our
Chaguan column this week
has more on China’s unique brand of “doghouse diplomacy”.
Now Mr Carney is preparing to visit Beijing, which would be the
first such trip by a Canadian leader since 2017. But Canada is still
debating how far and how fast to go with this new camaraderie. Trade,
especially with tariffs on Canadian canola and Chinese electric
vehicles, is a thorny area. It raises hard questions about the
industries Canada wants to prioritise and its alignment with an
unpredictable southern neighbour.
On my recent flight to Canada, I sat next to a lovely woman
from Hengshui, a city in Hebei known for its intense cram schools. She
and her husband didn’t want to subject their kid to the same pressures
they experienced in preparing for the gaokao university-entrance
exam. So they moved to Canada. In March they marvelled at the northern
lights in Yellowknife. In the latest sign of warming ties, China last
month approved group tours to Canada for the first time since 2020. More
Chinese people will now be able to experience Canada’s magic. But they
should be smarter than me and dry their hair before stepping out in the
middle of winter.
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